Scorecast Stats Bulletin - issue #2 (and update)

I'm very pleased to announce that the Scorecast Stats Bulletin issue #2 was a WINNER!

(If you're here because of an email you've received, that email is going to be repeated just after this, so click this link to skip forward and see the actual bulletin that produced this bet).

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The Email

Hi all!

If you're reading this, you've either played the Scorecast or Tablecast, or have helped me test them, or have declared interest in the past at some point. Whichever it is, thank you.

This season (on a trial basis) I'll be running a bit of an experiment, betting on the Scorecast fixtures based on the predictions of the top 10 Scorecast players during any given week. If you're in the Scorecast already, you might've seen the "Scorecast Stats Bulletin", in which I present selected stats in a way that might inform a flutter on that gameweek's games.

I'm very pleased to announce that my chosen way to test this, which is a 6-fold bet on 8 match outcomes, has its first big win of the season, with £119 off less than a fiver (to be precise, £4.76, because to do a 6-fold bet from 8 games you actually have to do 28 separate, small, 6-fold bets. £5 divided by 28 is 17.9 pence, so to keep it under a fiver the most you can put on is 17p per bet, hence £0.17 * 28 = £4.76).

If I'd put the 8-fold accumulator on, I'd have won £270 but, this way, I would've got some money back if only 6 or 7 of my picks had been successful.

Not too shabby!

If you've not declared an interest in this I promise I won't spam the bejeezus out of you, but this email is going out to everyone whose email I've got, in case you want these bulletins. They're free. Obviously, this is meant just for fun and we don't accept any responsibility for gambling losses/habits etc. When the fun stops, stop.

However, if you ARE having fun, and would like to have a specific Scorecast-based kind of fun, going forward, even if you're not actually playing the Scorecast yourself, please just reply to this email with the words "BULLETIN SUBSCRIBE" and I'll add you to a list that will receive the bulletins whenever I do them.

Please note, if you're actually playing the Scorecast, you will only get the bulletin automatically if you've entered your predictions 24 hours before deadline. If you're late, you'll have to email me if you want a copy and I'll send it out to you.

*** end eMail ***

The Actual Bulletin

(Already seen this? Click here to SKIP TO SUMMARY)

Champions’ League, baby!

Hi everyone. Nowhere near as long a bulletin as last time - for all the info on what it’s about, go have a look at issue #1.

The Actual Information

ROUND 2

There wasn’t a bulletin for Round 3 so Round 2 was the last one for which we have results.

Once again, I went for the 6-fold from 8 picks, just with the result of the game. Green ones

came in, red ones didn’t.

Bournemouth v SPURS

ARSENAL v Fulham

Brentford v C Palace (draw)

MAN UTD v Nottingham Forest

BRIGHTON v West Ham

Burnley v ASTON VILLA

Sheff Utd v MAN CITY

NEWCASTLE v Liverpool

Only 4 out of 8 so no dice there. Also, Man City failed to keep a clean sheet, and Bournemouth didn’t score the single goal that the cohort predicted. One interesting stat is that only 7 of the top 10 picked Arsenal to beat Fulham, as opposed to 90% of the whole cohort… and that finished 2-2 so it looks like the in-form players were right to be reticent.

As for the upcoming Premier League and Champions’ League fixtures, hopefully we’ll have a

good week while I’m top of the league!

The average scores predicted by the top 10 are as follows:

All of the top 10 think City will win to nil in Europe, and 9 of the 10 have Newcastle beating Brentford and drawing with AC Milan. 9 out of 10 for Villa over Palace, and 9 out of 10 for Bayern v Man Utd as well. Arsenal have all 10’s backing to beat PSV Endhoven. 7 of 10 have Man City to score at least 3 goals, and all 10 have both teams to score in the Milan v Newcastle fixture.

As for the stats across the entire cohort…

80 out of 81 for Man City against Belgrade, and 79 of 81 for Spurs against Sheffield United. The bets are swayed slightly in favour of Milan in our European return, with 112 goals vs 105 in their favour. That makes the average score 1.4 to 1.3, a difference of 1/10 of a goal, as per the top 10’s predictions. Apparently, that’s got a score draw written all over it.

Meanwhile, everyone has said Villa, Spurs, Newcastle (v Brentford), Man City, Bayern Munich, and Arsenal will score at least one goal each. 57 of the 81 (70%) reckon Man City will score at least 3 goals against Red Star Belgrade. Villa, Fulham, Spurs, Newcastle (against Brentford), Man City, Bayern and Arsenal all have an average above 2 goals predicted.

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Summary

I didn't mention in the bulletin that I'd be doing the 6-fold from 8 bet, but I think that's what I'm going to be sticking to every week and, quite fortuitously, the bet I've just made has funded it for the whole season.

One thing I should point out is that the bets I've put on are informed by the stats... I'm not lifting the same verbatim info every time. For example, this time, I saw that while the top 10 averaged out to a win for AC Milan v Newcastle, it was only because the averages were 1.5 - 1.4 and therefore rounded to 2-1. Thing is, there's actually only 0.1 difference between the average scores, and 9 of the top 10 actually picked a draw for that fixture, so in this instance I thought a draw was a more accurate representation of how the teams would fare.

It's worth noting that the draw between AC Milan and Newcastle had by far the biggest odds at 3.4; as such, if I'd put that as a Milan win, I'd only have won £12.36... still a profit of £7.60 but nowhere near what I actually came away with.

So there you have it!

If you're playing the Scorecast, you will receive Scorecast Bulletins automatically as long as you get your score predictions in 24 hours before deadline. I won't be doing them every round, necessarily, but will try to do them as often as I can. If you're late with your submission (ie. less than 24 hours ahead of deadline) and you still want the bulletin, you'll have to email me after you've submitted.

If you're NOT playing the Scorecast but still would like the bulletins, just email rob@toontalk.uk with the subject or body text "BULLETIN SUBSCRIBE".

See you in a bit

Rob