Where will we finish?

Roberto Di Statteo
Apr 21, 2023
5 min read

Without a doubt, it's been an incredible season and I don't think anybody predicted we'd be doing this well. A few of us may have loyally bumped up our Tablecast prediction (Stuart Latimer) but to be looking at qualifying for Europe, let alone the Champions' League, is an incredible achievement for the owners, the players and, perhaps most of all, Eddie Howe.

But, of course, the season's not over, and we still want to finish as high as we can. Gone are the days of mathematical safety being relevant (we are mathematically safe, by the way...) and now 3rd place is well within our grasp. Are we gonna do it, though? I tried the Premier League table before the Villa game (rip up, start again) but as many people correctly pointed out, I massively overestimated Liverpool... thing is, when you're looking at Team A vs Team B, it's hard to predict which defeats that you wouldn't normally expect, will happen.

So, I'm gonna try and be a bit more thorough with the predictions this time and, even though Wolves can still finish 3rd, mathematically, I'm gonna stick with the teams currently in 3rd to 8th place.

So, here we go, club-by-club...

3rd. Manchester United

After a dismal start to the season, the reds have bounced back in spectacular style, including a cup win (ugh). That said, we did make them look very average at St. James' Park. Lisandro Martinez has a broken foot and won't be available until July, Varane is a few weeks from return and while McTominay and Garnacho are due back soon, they won't be fully fit for a while.

They've won three on the bounce since we beat them, against Brentford, Forest and Everton which would suggest that our win was a blip in their form (even though we're better than them).

The history's not with us on Man Utd... we have NEVER finished above them in a Premier League season and, as I'm sure is the case with most of you, I'd love it if we beat them...

Chelsea should be a walkover; Lampard's club officially have the hardest run-in in the Premier League with average opponents' position of 7.29. Besides that, Spurs are hot and cold so it could go either way... I'll call that a draw, and they might lose one more... probably Villa. Besides that, I reckon Man Utd. will win the rest of their games, which is 19 of a possible 24 points. If we're lucky, they'll slip up against Wolves or Fulham, but I can't see it unless they get another injury/suspension thrown at them. That gives Man Utd. a points total of 78, which will still put them 2nd to Arsenal unless Arsenal fail to win a game for the rest of the season. While that certainly won't happen, the benchmark to finish 3rd is 78 points (and the goal difference, which is massively in our favour as Newcastle and Man City are the only teams to have conceded less than one goal per game on average).

4th. Newcastle United

Here's the one you've all been waiting for, and not waiting long because we're fourth in the league. Unbelievable... but true. We'd won 4 on the bounce before that capitulation against Villa, so we're also a team that has enjoyed mostly good form of late.

There are only seven fixtures listed here but we do have eight to play with the home game against Brighton still to be scheduled. We're odds on to beat Spurs, we have beaten Arsenal to nil twice in a row and, based on our form before the Villa game and what I've seen of these others in the last few games, we shouldn't really get any trouble from anyone else on the list... although, Everton and Leeds do pull the odd rabbit out of the hat, and Brighton are no pushovers (they bring our average opponents' position up to 12.00).

So... rose-tinted specs off... I don't think we'll keep Arsenal to nil this time, but I think we're good for a draw at home, maybe pinch the win if we're lucky. We might drop two points at Chelsea and, though we really shouldn't drop points at Chelsea, that's as pessimistic as I'm willing to be, so that's Newcastle to get 20 points from their remaining 24 and finishing on 76, unfortunately below that horrible red lot.

5th. Tottenham Hotspur

I think Spurs could fall away. At present, they've got Moura suspended, and Lenglet, Royal, Davies, Sessegnon and Bissouma out injured. When you add to that their next three fixtures against us (A), Man Utd (H) and Liverpool (A), Villa away soon, and then last game of the season against a Leeds side who are likely to be fighting for survival... and their run-in score agrees as well with their average opponents' position below only Chelsea's and Aston Villa's. 8.29 average opponents' position is equivalent to playing Liverpool every week.

The thing is, it's only a matter of time 'til Spurs find form whether that be this season, next season, after another new manager... and it's not like they're a terrible side - they're fifth in the league for a reason... but part of that reason may well be that they've still to play a fairly tough group of opponents. They've also only got seven games remaining, so are at an immediate disadvantage to the teams above them with games in hand.

Realistically, I think they'll lose those next three (though they'll be up for it on Sunday after their disaster against Bournemouth) and probably lose to Villa as well. They'll beat Palace and Leeds... but Brentford? Depends on whether Ivan Toney's playing and he's on 9 yellow cards so... I guess I'll give that one to Spurs as well. 9 points from a possible 27 seems harsh but I honestly think it's fair. Based on what we saw in our last game, Villa look a far stronger side than Spurs IMO. 62 points and might not even hit the top 6.

6th. Aston Villa

Here's the potential applecart upsetter... Aston Villa have won five in a row, unbeaten in eight, and the only defeats in their last 10 were against Arsenal and Man City. In fact, since Unai Emery took over, Aston Villa have equalled Man City for points, giving them a massive boost up the table.

While we didn't play well, I thought Villa's performance against us was exceptional - certainly the most organised opponents I've seen against us all season and it's clear to see why Emery was another manager mentioned around the time Eddie Howe came in. They're very similar in their meticulous approaches to tactics, positioning, attacking play management, set pieces... and, like Howe, he's managed to get these performances out of a group of players previously thought to be bang-average.

As I mentioned before, though, Villa do have the hardest run-in of any side other than Chelsea, according to their opponents' average position. I do think they'll win all of their remaining home games, perhaps a draw at Brentford and/or Liverpool (let's say both), beating Wolves away. I've already said they'll win at Old Trafford and, while they won't be favourites, it'd be just like Man Utd's players to underestimate them. So that's Villa to remain unbeaten the rest of the season, and take 17 from 21 points, finishing on 67. That puts them above Spurs at the end of the season but 9 points away from catching us in 4th.

So that's it. Newcastle to finish 4th and I've had a look at the remaining fixtures for the other teams too. I really think Spurs could fall off. My predictions table had Man City to win the league on goal difference and I'll stick with that. Final top half: